Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will record its peak daily temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Fahrenheit range containing that high. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome on any non-64–65°F range reflects a near-total consensus that the day’s maximum will fall within that narrow band. This aligns with historical July averages for Seattle, where typical highs sit around 75°F but frequently dip lower due to coastal influence and occasional marine layers [2]. The 64–65°F frontrunner at 100% suggests the market is pricing in a cooler-than-average day, possibly influenced by recent regional weather patterns or forecast models indicating suppressed heat [1].

Programmatically, traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the KSEA station, as the resolution source is explicitly tied to its daily maximum [1]. Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast updates and any sudden shifts in Pacific marine air intrusion, which can rapidly suppress temperatures. A recent analysis of Seattle’s July climate notes a 10% daily rain chance and average wind speeds of 6.6 mph, factors that often correlate with lower peak temperatures [2]. For bot-driven strategies, conditional orders should trigger on deviations from the 64–65°F range once the 48-hour forecast window closes, as historical volatility in this period is low but not negligible. The settlement window ending 2026-07-16T12:00:00Z requires precise timestamp alignment in automated systems to avoid latency errors.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seattle on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.