Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s highest temperature on 22 July 2026 will be set by the day’s single warmest airport reading, and the market resolves off the Wunderground daily history page for KSEA. With the crowd at 0% YES, the book is effectively pricing the event as outside the current distribution, so a programmatic trader would treat that as a data-quality or timing check first: verify the station, watch the Wunderground daily maximum, and align any conditional order logic to the settlement window rather than the calendar day alone.

Historical framing matters because Seattle summer highs often cluster in a relatively narrow band, but extremes can jump sharply during regional heat events. On this market’s own ladder, the live front-runner is 92–93°F at 45%, with 90–91°F next at 24%, which shows traders are already concentrating around a warm-day outcome rather than a broad spread.[1] Current conditions in Seattle are much cooler than those peak buckets, with AccuWeather reporting 70°F and mostly clear skies, so the path to a high-end settlement still depends on a meaningful warming trend during the trading day.[2]

The main catalysts are the forecast updates, any late heat advisories, and the intraday evolution of cloud cover, wind, and marine influence, all of which can move the day’s maximum materially. Seattle has recently seen heat-advisory-driven record concerns in Western Washington, which is the kind of regional setup that can pull airport maxima upward quickly when warm air dominates.[3] A bot or copy-trading rule set would typically monitor successive forecast runs, trigger on changes in the expected high versus the 92–93°F bucket, and avoid assuming the morning observation can safely bound the eventual peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.