Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle’s highest temperature on 23 July 2026 will be set by the warmest reading at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, so the practical question is whether the day produces a modest summer high or a brief warm spike. July in Seattle is typically mild, with average highs around 75°F, plenty of daylight, and relatively low rainfall, which makes the airport station a better fit for a structured range market than a broad “Seattle” headline forecast.[1]

The current 0% YES price implies the crowd sees the top end of the distribution as out of reach, but that should be read against the local July baseline rather than as a hard signal on the actual weather. Comparable Seattle July conditions usually cluster in the mid-70s Fahrenheit, while recent Polymarket weather books on nearby dates have still shown active pricing across adjacent bins, suggesting traders can use temperature-cutoff logic, not just the mean forecast, when automating entries or copy-trading around these markets.[1][4]

For a programmatic workflow, the key inputs are the daily forecast track, any late-day warming trend, and the specific airport observation used for settlement, because the market resolves off the highest temperature recorded at KSEA on that date via Wunderground rather than a citywide average.[2] Traders should watch National Weather Service time series updates for the station, then compare them with intraday forecast model shifts and any changes in the afternoon heating profile; in practice, the trade often turns on whether the airport breaks into a higher band for even a short window, not on the daily mean.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.