Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature recorded at Incheon Intl Airport Station on 2 August**, with settlement based on the Wunderground daily-history reading for that station. In practical terms, a programmatic trader would treat this as a daytime-extremes problem rather than a close-of-day average: the key variable is whether the airport station logs a single spike into the relevant band before the settlement window closes.

The current **0% YES** implies the market is pricing in an outcome outside the listed band, but comparable August climatology does not support an unusually cold day. Forecasts for Seoul in early August cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with AccuWeather showing Seoul August highs broadly in the **81–88°F** range and local forecasts calling for Seoul around **35°C** and Incheon around **33°C** on 2 August.[1][3][6] Long-run summer norms also point to August as one of the hottest months, with Seoul’s August daily highs often near the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius depending on the source, and wet-season rain decreasing through the month rather than eliminating heat spikes.[13][15]

For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the main catalysts are the **hourly temperature path**, any **shower timing**, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover suppresses the afternoon peak at the airport station. Korean forecasts for 2 August call for generally clear to partly cloudy conditions nationwide, with showers only in selected inland and eastern areas, which matters because a brief cloudburst near Incheon would cap the daily maximum more than a dry heat pattern would.[3][6][10] A programmatic setup would typically watch successive forecast refreshes from the KMA and the airport-station observations, then bracket likely outcomes around the settlement bands rather than rely on the headline city forecast alone.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.