Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is expected to reach highs near 31–33°C on 13 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official resolution point for this weather market[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market has not yet identified a specific outcome that meets the binary criteria, likely because the market is structured as a multi-outcome range rather than a simple yes/no event, or the specific condition for "YES" remains undefined in the current listing[1].

Historical data frames this expectation against extreme precedents, including Seoul’s record early July high of 37.7°C in 2018, which stood as the hottest for 117 years[6]. Recent trends show South Korea enduring record-breaking summer heat, with July 2025 marking the second-hottest July since 1973 and a streak of tropical nights exceeding 25°C for 22 consecutive days[3][7]. These patterns indicate that while 33°C is the current leading outcome at 55%, the volatility of recent summers means traders should programme their bots to monitor for sudden spikes toward the 35–37°C range rather than relying solely on the 32–33°C consensus[1][2].

Traders must watch the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and real-time Wunderground feeds for the Incheon station, as settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at that specific location[1]. Conditional orders should be triggered by announcements of tropical night persistence or sudden humidity shifts, which historically correlate with higher daytime peaks in Seoul[3]. Programmatic approaches should integrate the Wunderground history API to fetch minute-by-minute data, ensuring automated positions adjust before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes on 13 July 2026[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.