Highest temperature in Seoul on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C during the monsoon season. The settlement mechanism uses Incheon International Airport's weather station as the official reference point, which sits approximately 50 kilometres west of central Seoul and often records slightly lower temperatures than the city centre due to maritime influence. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature bands available or treating this as a calibration exercise against historical July 14th data.

Historical July temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs on July 14th ranged from 25.6°C (2018, during an unusually cool monsoon period) to 32.2°C (2019). The 2023 heatwave pushed many mid-July readings above 31°C, though this was an anomalous year. Traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical archive against Korea Meteorological Administration datasets to establish baseline expectations for each temperature bracket before the settlement window closes.

For programmatic approaches, the key dependency is the timing of the East Asian summer monsoon system and any high-pressure systems moving across the Korean Peninsula in early-to-mid July 2026. Current seasonal forecasting models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and CMA typically issue 30-day outlooks by late June. Traders monitoring conditional orders should set triggers around June 20th when extended-range forecasts become more reliable, allowing automated position adjustments based on predicted atmospheric patterns rather than relying on real-time temperature readings.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.