Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 15 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the official record sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for RKSI. The market currently assigns zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range, yet the frontrunner is 27°C at 40%, followed by 28°C at 31%, indicating the crowd expects mid-to-high summer warmth rather than extreme heat [1].

Historically, mid-July in Seoul typically sees maximums between 26°C and 30°C, with 27°C and 28°C being the most frequent outcomes over the past decade. The current 0% YES probability likely reflects a misalignment in how the market interprets the resolution ranges or an early liquidity gap, as comparable years show no structural reason for temperatures to fall outside the expected summer band. Programmatic traders should backtest Wunderground’s RKSI daily max against the market’s range definitions to identify arbitrage opportunities before the settlement window closes.

Key catalysts include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s weekly heatwave advisories and any sudden shifts in the East Asian monsoon pattern, which can suppress or amplify daytime highs. Traders should monitor the 5-day forecast from the KMA and Wunderground’s real-time updates for RKSI, as a confirmed heatwave announcement would rapidly shift implied probabilities toward the 28–30°C ranges. A recent KMA bulletin on regional heat trends underscores the importance of tracking these official forecasts for early positioning [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.