Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily history for the RKSI station. Programmatic traders should note the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome, which contradicts the frontrunner data showing 31°C at 76% probability and 32°C or higher at 22% [1]. This discrepancy suggests either a data feed lag in the user interface or a misalignment between the displayed aggregate and the specific binary toggle being evaluated.

Historical July peaks in Seoul typically range between 30°C and 35°C, making the 31°C frontrunner statistically plausible against the 0% implied probability [1]. Comparable cases from recent years show that mid-July heatwaves in the Korean capital frequently breach 31°C, meaning a zero probability assignment represents a significant pricing inefficiency for algorithmic arbitrage strategies targeting weather anomalies.

Traders must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecast schedules and real-time Wunderground updates as the primary catalysts for price correction. Recent weather patterns in East Asia indicate a high likelihood of summer heat persistence, which should drive the market toward the 31°C or 32°C+ ranges as settlement approaches [1]. Automated bots should flag the 0% reading as a potential error condition and execute conditional orders once the 76% probability for 31°C stabilises, leveraging the clear divergence between historical norms and current crowd pricing.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.