Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s peak heat on 20 July 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing the day’s highest recorded temperature. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s daily history for the RKSI station, capturing the absolute maximum across all hours.

Historically, Seoul’s July highs average 28°C, with precipitation chances at 43% and roughly 10.5 hours of clear sky daily[1]. A 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the listed range entirely—likely below the lowest bracket or above the highest. Comparable cases show July peaks often reach 33–35°C during dry spells, but cloud cover and rain can suppress highs to 25–27°C. Programmatic traders should back-test Wunderground’s RKSI history for 20 July across the past decade to calibrate range thresholds, then deploy conditional orders that trigger only if real-time data breaches the 28°C average with sustained dry conditions.

Key catalysts include Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts for mid-July heatwaves and any sudden shifts in monsoon activity. Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for RKSI, cross-referencing with satellite cloud-cover data to anticipate suppression or spikes. A recent heatwave alert from Yonhap News in early July 2026 flagged potential 36°C peaks across the capital region, though Incheon’s coastal location often moderates extremes. Automated bots can scrape Wunderground’s hourly RKSI feed, apply a rolling 24-hour max filter, and execute trades when the projected peak breaches the market’s upper bound with 90% confidence.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.