Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with daily highs typically ranging between 28–32°C at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station for this market. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact temperature bands available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast opportunity. July 25th falls within Seoul's most consistently hot period, when monsoon influence and urban heat effects combine to produce reliable warmth, making extreme outcomes less likely than moderate-to-warm ranges.

Historical data from Incheon Airport shows July averages around 29°C, with peaks occasionally exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The past five years have seen July 25th specifically range between 27–31°C, providing a useful baseline for evaluating which temperature brackets carry genuine predictive value. Wunderground's historical records are accessible programmatically via their API, allowing traders to backtest seasonal patterns and identify which resolution bands have historically resolved most frequently.

Traders monitoring this market should track Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early July, which typically offer 10–15 day outlooks by mid-month. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as Typhoon activity or anomalous high-pressure systems—would shift expectations upward. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on July 25th, meaning real-time temperature data becomes available only after market close, making this a pure forecast exercise rather than a live-monitoring play. Conditional orders tied to KMA announcements would be the primary programmatic approach for position management.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.