Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul experiences peak summer heat in late July, with daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The 28th falls within the core of the East Asian monsoon season, when warm, humid air masses dominate the Korean peninsula. Temperature extremes on any given day depend on cloud cover, precipitation timing, and the strength of the Pacific high-pressure system. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands.

Historical data from Incheon International Airport shows July daily maxima have exceeded 35°C in roughly one-third of years over the past two decades, with 2018 and 2022 recording particularly severe heat waves. The settlement mechanism uses Wunderground's historical weather archive, which aggregates hourly readings from the airport station—the official reference point for Seoul-area temperature records. Traders automating queries against Wunderground's API should note that the platform updates historical data with a lag of 24–48 hours post-observation, and the gear-icon toggle between Celsius and Fahrenheit is essential for avoiding unit-conversion errors in conditional order logic.

Monitoring the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from mid-July onwards will signal whether high-pressure systems are intensifying or weakening. Recent patterns suggest the 2026 monsoon onset may shift the typical timing of peak heat; traders should cross-reference seasonal anomaly indices published by NOAA and the Asian Monsoon Seasonal Prediction Centre. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the 28th, which corresponds to 21:00 local Seoul time, capturing the full diurnal cycle.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.