Highest temperature in Seoul on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 5 July 2026, a date falling squarely within South Korea’s monsoon season. Historical data indicates Seoul typically experiences highs between 21°C and 28°C in July, though recent years have seen extreme deviations. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not exceed a specific threshold, likely influenced by the expectation of rain showers that often suppress peak heat during early July.

To read this probability programmatically, one must analyse comparable cases where early July temperatures spiked despite monsoon conditions. Just days ago, Seoul recorded 37.8°C on 8 July, the highest early-July temperature in 117 years, beating the previous record of 36.8°C [3][4]. This recent heatwave demonstrates that even within the rainy season, atmospheric pressure shifts can trigger record highs, making the 0% probability a potentially risky short position if weather models fail to predict a sudden dry spell.

A power-user evaluating this market should monitor real-time dependencies from the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically short-range forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation intensity on 4–5 July [6]. The catalyst to watch is any announcement regarding a break in the monsoon front, as recent news confirms South Korea is grappling with record heatwaves that could persist [3]. Programmatically, traders would set conditional orders to buy if Wunderground data shows a rapid drop in humidity ahead of the settlement window, as dry air correlates strongly with higher maximum temperatures [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.