Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range, likely due to expectations of monsoon-driven cooling. Historically, early July in Seoul is hot and humid, with average highs near 28°C and feels-like temperatures exceeding 34°C due to humidity above 80%[1][2]. However, the region is also in the midst of the Jangma monsoon season, where short but heavy rainfalls are concentrated, often suppressing peak temperatures in inland cities like Seoul[1]. While record-breaking heatwaves have occurred, such as Seoul reaching 37.8°C in a recent early July event[10], the prevailing monsoon conditions typically keep daily highs within the 21°C to 28°C band[2].

A programmatic trader approaching this market would script a bot to monitor real-time Wunderground data feeds for the Incheon station, cross-referencing them with Korea Meteorological Administration short-range forecasts for precipitation probability[4]. The primary catalyst to watch is the intensity and timing of the monsoon showers, as heavy rain can rapidly drop temperatures below the range threshold. Recent reports highlight that South Korea has recorded its highest-ever July temperatures, with Seoul hitting 37.7°C, a record for early July in 117 years[9]. Yet, this extreme is an outlier; the standard dependency for this date is the monsoon's ability to deliver cooling rain, which remains the dominant variable for the 6th. Traders should also track wind speed and cloud cover forecasts, as cloudy conditions with light winds often precede the heavier downpours that define the wettest month in South Korea[1]. The settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC ensures only the morning and early afternoon peak is captured, a critical window where monsoon activity is most likely to intervene.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.