Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's early June weather sits at the threshold between late spring and summer onset. The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 1 June will determine the settlement range. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows June 1st averages around 21–23°C in Seoul, with extremes rarely exceeding 28°C at this calendar point. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a baseline reference rather than a genuine forecast vehicle.

Comparable early-June temperature events in Seoul reveal modest variance. The past decade shows June 1st highs clustering between 19–26°C, with only two instances exceeding 27°C. The 2023 reading was 24.2°C; 2022 reached 25.8°C. This historical tightness means the market's resolution hinges on whether 2026 follows the established pattern or deviates toward anomalous heat. Programmatic traders would flag this as a low-volatility event with predictable bounds, suitable for conditional orders triggered by seasonal forecasts rather than reactive positioning.

The Korea Meteorological Administration issues 10-day outlooks in late May that would serve as the primary catalyst for position adjustments. Traders monitoring this market should integrate KMA's early-June forecast releases (typically issued 28–30 May) as decision points. Wunderground's historical data feed allows automated verification once 2 June arrives, making this market amenable to bot-based settlement confirmation without manual intervention.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.