Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 10 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's weather station and resolved against Wunderground's historical records. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle recorded at the station before the cutoff. This market requires programmatic verification of Wunderground's data feed, as the resolution hinges entirely on a single source's historical archive rather than a live forecast or official meteorological announcement.

June temperatures in Seoul typically range between 23–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early summer heat waves. Historical data from 2015–2024 shows that daily highs on 10 June have varied from 22°C to 31°C depending on monsoon activity and high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting models or treating this as a calibration market where baseline expectations haven't solidified. Early June in South Korea sits at the threshold between spring and the rainy season, making temperature volatility a genuine factor rather than a settled meteorological pattern.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from late May onwards, particularly alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Wunderground's historical data structure requires manual verification of the specific station code (RKSI) and temperature unit settings, making this suitable for conditional order automation once seasonal models converge. The market's utility lies in testing data-source reliability and settlement mechanics rather than exploiting weather prediction edges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.