Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. Early June in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits between 22–28°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all outcome ranges.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable variance year-on-year. Between 2015 and 2024, 11 June highs ranged from 19°C to 31°C, with most years clustering around 24–27°C. The station's elevation and coastal proximity moderate extremes compared to central Seoul readings. Traders automating resolution checks should note that Weather Underground's historical archive occasionally updates within 48 hours of observation; programmatic settlement verification benefits from a 24-hour lag post-settlement window close.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include the East Asian monsoon's onset timing and any high-pressure systems tracking across the Korean peninsula in early June. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in May; their June 2026 forecast will clarify whether conditions favour above or below-normal temperatures. Conditional order logic should account for the tight settlement window (ending 12:00 UTC on the day itself), which limits real-time arbitrage opportunities. Direct API integration with Weather Underground's historical endpoint remains the most reliable approach for automated position management.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.