Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the market resolving to whichever temperature band contains that day's recorded high. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which archives hourly observations and daily extremes for this station—a standard reference point for Korean meteorological data accessible via API for automated resolution verification.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show a median high around 26–27°C, with extremes ranging from 20°C on cooler years to 32°C during heat waves. The 1% probability assigned to the highest temperature bracket suggests traders are pricing in a notably unusual heat event. For context, June 2023 saw Seoul experience temperatures near 30°C mid-month, whilst June 2022 remained cooler. Programmatic traders monitoring this market would benefit from cross-referencing Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature extremes.

Catalysts to track include the East Asian monsoon onset timing and any developing high-pressure systems over the Korean peninsula in early June. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes weekly forecasts every Wednesday and Friday; these updates directly influence temperature expectations and would likely trigger conditional order adjustments. Traders automating position management should integrate KMA data feeds alongside Wunderground's historical archive to calibrate their models against official Korean weather service predictions, which often diverge from international forecasting models during monsoon transition periods.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.