Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's June weather typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the East Asian monsoon season approaches. Historical data from Incheon International Airport—the official measurement station for this market—shows June daily highs averaging 24–26°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the exact threshold bands available or treating this as a straightforward seasonal forecast requiring minimal edge.

Comparable June temperature markets in temperate Asian cities show clustering around modal outcomes rather than tail events. Seoul's June 14 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 18°C in cooler years to 31°C during warmer patterns over the past two decades. The settlement mechanism ties directly to Wunderground's historical weather API, which updates daily and allows programmatic verification—useful for conditional order logic that triggers based on real-time temperature readings rather than manual resolution disputes.

Traders monitoring this market should track the East Asian weather pattern forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any early monsoon activity. South Korea's Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks that often precede broader weather service consensus. For systematic approaches, querying Wunderground's API directly during the settlement window provides deterministic resolution data without intermediary interpretation, making this market suitable for automated settlement verification in multi-leg trading strategies.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.