Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul experiences early summer conditions by mid-June, with the monsoon season typically beginning around late May or early June. The highest daily temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 15 June will determine the settlement outcome. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows June 15 temperatures in Seoul have ranged from approximately 24°C to 32°C over the past two decades, with an average high around 27–28°C. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either awaiting more granular forecast data or treating this as a calibration event rather than an active trading opportunity.

For programmatic evaluation, the resolution mechanism anchors to Wunderground's historical records for Incheon station (RKSI), requiring API integration to capture the daily maximum. Traders monitoring this market should cross-reference Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts released 7–10 days prior to settlement, which typically offer reliable 500 hPa pattern guidance for the region. Recent anomalies in East Asian jet stream positioning have created wider-than-normal temperature variance in early summer forecasts; the June 2024 period saw atypical heat waves across the Korean peninsula. Conditional order logic could trigger on specific forecast model outputs—GFS and ECMWF ensemble means will be the primary catalysts for probability shifts in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.