Highest temperature in Seoul on June 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 2 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, with the settlement hinging on the single highest temperature recorded that calendar day in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the range options. For programmatic traders, this requires integrating historical weather data feeds with conditional order logic tied to Wunderground's daily archive, which updates after local midnight on the settlement date.

June in Seoul typically sees early monsoon season onset, with daily highs ranging from 24–28°C depending on precipitation patterns. Historical June data from Incheon shows temperatures rarely exceed 30°C before mid-month, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Traders should cross-reference five-year historical distributions for 2 June specifically, as seasonal variance matters; the Korea Meteorological Administration publishes monthly climate normals that can inform prior distributions for conditional order triggers.

The key catalyst is the weather forecast window closing on 1–2 June. Major pressure systems affecting the Korean peninsula typically become predictable 5–7 days ahead, so traders should monitor synoptic charts from the Korean Meteorological Administration and regional high-pressure ridge positioning in late May. Any unusual atmospheric setup—tropical cyclone remnants or anomalous heat transport from China—would shift expectations materially. Automated systems should flag significant forecast revisions after 31 May, when ensemble model consensus solidifies.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.