Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. This specific date sits within Seoul’s peak warming window for June, where daily highs typically climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F[1]. Historically, the capital has seen extreme June heat, with 35.6°C recorded on 19 June 2026—the highest June temperature since 1958[8]. The all-time national record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon, but Incheon’s coastal position usually moderates extremes compared to inland areas[2]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, this likely reflects uncertainty about which range will trigger resolution, not that the event itself is impossible.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for Incheon and cross-reference with KMA announcements, especially if heatwave advisories are issued. The immediate catalyst is the 19 June spike to 35.6°C, which sets a strong precedent for elevated temperatures continuing through late June[8]. A power-user would script a bot to pull hourly maxima from Wunderground’s history endpoint and flag any deviation above 35°C as a potential resolution trigger. Recent reports confirm South Korea experienced its hottest June in 52 years, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained high temperatures[8]. Dependencies include cloud cover, solar irradiance (which decreases slightly in late June), and the North Pacific high-pressure system’s influence, known to drive humid, hot conditions up to 35°C[4]. No new policy announcements are expected, but meteorological bulletins from KMA remain the primary data dependency for validation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.