Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the peak heat recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, a date falling squarely within Seoul’s hottest seasonal window. Historically, June highs in Seoul climb from 77°F to 81°F, rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F, with solar energy gradually declining through the month[1]. Recent data shows 2025 June was the hottest ever since 1973, averaging 22.9°C, while 2026 already saw a peak of 91°F on 19 June[3][4]. This context explains why a 0% YES probability for extreme heat is statistically grounded: the range thresholds likely exceed typical June maxima, making such an outcome improbable without a record-breaking anomaly.

A programmatic trader would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for Incheon’s daily peak, cross-referencing with Korea Meteorological Administration alerts for heatwaves or monsoon shifts. Key catalysts include the scheduled onset of the East Asian monsoon, which typically suppresses temperatures after late June, and any official announcements of extreme heat advisories. Recent news confirms South Korea’s rising heat trend, with Hongcheon hitting 41.0°C in 2023, the nation’s all-time record[2][7]. Traders should also track forecasted cloud cover and wind patterns, as these dependencies directly influence peak temperatures. With settlement ending 2026-06-25T12:00:00Z, automated bots must ingest hourly updates to adjust conditional orders before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.