Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, a metric that will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical climatology for late June in Seoul establishes a baseline high near 28°C, with daily temperatures typically rising from 77°F to 81°F during this period[2]. Recent data confirms that 59 out of 97 weather stations across South Korea recorded their highest daily average temperatures for June between Saturday and Monday, indicating a trend of shattering seasonal records[5]. The market currently assigns a 42% probability to a 27°C outcome and 25% to 28°C, suggesting that while 31°C or higher is priced at 0%, the baseline expectation remains firmly in the mid-to-high 20s[1].

A power-user approaching this programmatically must monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and the specific solar radiation schedules, as shortwave solar energy is gradually decreasing through June[2]. The catalyst for a significant deviation from the baseline would be the arrival of a sustained heat dome, similar to the record-breaking conditions seen in August 2025 when average temperatures ended 2.9°C above the 1991–2020 mean[3]. Traders should also watch for real-time updates from Weather Underground, the designated resolution source, particularly if the forecast for June 2026 shifts towards the 84°–92°F range currently projected for Seoul[6]. The all-time national record of 41.0°C at Hongcheon serves as an extreme outlier, but the immediate focus remains on whether local conditions at Incheon will breach the 30°C threshold[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.