Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date that sits at the cusp of Korea’s early summer monsoon season. Historical data for Seoul in June shows daytime highs typically ranging between 19°C and 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching 26.7°C, though recent years have seen spikes up to 34.0°C, such as on 19 June 2026[1][6][7]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range suggests the market expects conditions to remain within the standard early-summer band, consistent with the mild, pre-monsoon climate that characterises early June before the intense heat of midsummer arrives[1][2].

A programmatically minded trader would monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for the 27th, paying close attention to the daytime high definition (9 AM until settlement time) and any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures[4]. The key catalyst is the onset of the monsoon, which typically spans late June to mid-July and brings increased rainfall and cooler, more stable air that often caps maximum temperatures[1][2]. Recent reports confirm South Korea experienced its second-hottest spring and hottest May ever, driven by elevated sea surface temperatures, which could theoretically push June temperatures higher than average, yet the monsoon’s cooling effect remains the dominant variable to watch for this specific date[10]. Traders should also track Wunderground’s real-time updates for Incheon, as the settlement relies exclusively on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.