Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded on 28 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. This single data point will determine the market resolution, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely due to historical patterns or anticipated weather conditions.

Historical data frames this probability clearly: June in Seoul typically sees highs between 19°C and 28°C, with the average warmest day reaching 26.7°C [1][7]. The highest maximum temperature recorded in June 2026 so far was 34.0°C on 19 June, but such extremes are rare and usually precede the monsoon season [9]. Early June often feels like extended spring, while humidity and rain increase toward the end of the month, making 28°C a plausible but not guaranteed ceiling [1]. A trader approaching this programmatically would weight the 0% probability against the likelihood of a monsoon-driven cool-down, which historically lowers late-June highs.

Key catalysts include the onset of Korea’s monsoon season, which typically begins in late June and brings heavy rain and high humidity [1][4]. Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could suppress temperatures below the range [3]. Recent reports indicate expectations of heavy rain and temperatures between 22–29°C for late June, reinforcing the 0% probability if the range requires higher values [4]. A conditional order strategy would trigger on Wunderground updates showing a drop below 28°C, aligning with the crowd’s bearish stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.