Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 7 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June sits within Seoul's transition period from late spring to early summer, with typical daily highs ranging between 24–28°C, though anomalies occur. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across the full range of possible outcomes.

Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade records peaks between 22°C and 31°C for early June dates, with 2018 and 2020 producing notably warm readings above 29°C whilst cooler years remained in the mid-20s. This spread indicates that any single temperature bracket carries genuine uncertainty. For programmatic traders, the resolution dependency on Wunderground's historical archive—rather than real-time forecasts—means the outcome becomes deterministic once 7 June passes, making this suitable for conditional order structures that execute post-settlement.

Monitoring points include seasonal weather pattern announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration in May 2026, which typically signal whether early summer will trend warm or cool. Pacific high-pressure systems and monsoon onset timing drive Seoul's June temperatures materially. Traders building automated strategies should note that Wunderground's data occasionally requires manual verification against official KMA records, and the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 June, creating a hard cutoff for temperature measurement that may not align with local midnight.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.