Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Incheon International Airport, the official measurement station. Late May in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with historical highs clustering between 28–32°C depending on whether a high-pressure system dominates or moisture-laden air masses bring cloud cover and convection. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a baseline; this is common for single-day weather markets where the event lies months ahead and meteorological uncertainty remains genuinely high.

Historical May 31st data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, recorded highs ranged from 23°C to 31°C, with the median around 27–28°C. Traders automating this market should flag the East Asian monsoon transition window—late May marks the onset of the pre-monsoon period when subtropical high-pressure systems compete with advancing moisture from the Pacific. This seasonal inflection point creates genuine forecast difficulty beyond typical day-to-day noise, making programmatic monitoring of ensemble model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) essential rather than relying on single deterministic runs.

For conditional order logic, the key dependency is the position of the North Pacific subtropical high relative to the Korean peninsula in early June. Weather services including the Korea Meteorological Administration typically issue extended outlooks 10–14 days ahead; traders should integrate those releases into their data pipeline. Wunderground's historical archive updates daily, so settlement verification is straightforward once 1 June arrives.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.