Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest reading at Pudong Airport on 2 August will usually be driven by the same late-summer pattern that makes early August one of the city’s hottest periods. Long-run August data for Shanghai show average highs around 32–35°C, with typical day-to-day maxima often in the high 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit and occasional excursions well above that during heatwave spells.[1][2][3]

That makes the market easy to model programmatically as a threshold-and-range problem rather than a single-point forecast: traders can map forecast distributions to the settlement bins and update them as the day evolves. The 0% YES price is only meaningful if the strike sits outside the plausible band; comparable Shanghai August data include a record 40°C for the month and recent August extremes above 35°C, so a hot day cannot be dismissed without checking the live airport obs and the local synoptic setup.[4][5][6]

The main catalysts are the morning forecast cycle, any typhoon-track shifts affecting cloud, rain and wind, and whether the airport gets sea-breeze moderation or inland heat advection. For a bot or conditional-order workflow, the practical inputs are the Wunderground station history page, the latest mesoscale forecast, and any official advisories that alter the intraday temperature trajectory; once the daily maximum is effectively locked in, later observations matter less than the timing of the hottest hour before the settlement cut-off.[8][10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.