Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 12 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for station ZSPD. Today is the settlement date, and the clock closes at 12:00 UTC, meaning the final reading is already locked in by the time this text is read.

Historical July highs at Pudong average near 31°C, with summer days frequently exceeding 30°C and occasionally reaching 35°C under clear skies [1][2][6]. The current 0% YES probability on the top outcome suggests the crowd expects a temperature below the highest listed range, likely aligning with the frontrunner of 30°C at 38% and 29°C at 32% [1]. This distribution mirrors typical post-plum-rain variability, where cloud cover and humidity suppress peak temperatures despite the season’s heat [1].

Programmatically, a trader would script a poller to fetch the ZSPD daily max from Wunderground’s history endpoint before 12:00 UTC, then compare it against the resolution ranges. The key dependency is the exact timestamp of the daily high, which Wunderground aggregates across all times on 12 July [1]. Recent local reports show overcast conditions with strong winds and rain on Sunday 12 July, capping the high at 30°C and supporting the market’s lean toward lower ranges [8]. No further announcements or schedules affect this outcome; the data source is fixed and the event is time-bound.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.