Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Pudong International Airport in degrees Celsius. Today’s live conditions show overcast skies and a current temperature of 34°C, with a maximum of 38°C forecast for the day, indicating active convective activity and thunderstorm rain [1][2]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific range suggests the market has not yet priced in a plausible outcome, likely due to the settlement window closing in just one hour at 12:00 UTC.

Historically, Shanghai’s July highs at Pudong Airport typically range between 32°C and 39°C, with extreme days occasionally reaching 40°C during heat domes. In 2024, the station recorded a peak of 39.2°C on 22 July, while 2023 saw 38.7°C on 21 July, establishing a tight band for programmatic traders to model. A bot evaluating this market would cross-reference Wunderground’s historical daily archive for ZSPD against real-time METAR feeds, applying a conditional order only if the 11:00 UTC reading exceeds 37°C, as the final hour rarely deviates significantly from the morning peak.

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s hourly updates and the China National Meteorological Centre’s heatwave advisory schedule, which often triggers at 38°C. A recent alert issued on 20 July for eastern China warned of sustained high temperatures and low humidity, increasing the likelihood of a 38–39°C peak [1]. Programmatic approaches must account for the 1-hour settlement cutoff, where latency in Wunderground’s data refresh could delay resolution, making conditional orders on temperature thresholds more reliable than manual entry.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 21? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.