Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport reading is the number that matters here: the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 31 July, with Wunderground as the reference. For a programmatic workflow, that means tracking the station page through the settlement window and mapping the day’s maximum into the market’s temperature bands, rather than using citywide forecasts or a different Shanghai station.

The current 0% implied probability on YES is best read against the fact that late July in Shanghai is typically hot, humid and capable of producing upper-30s Celsius readings. Historical July data for Shanghai commonly show average highs around 31–32°C, while the city’s extreme heat has pushed well beyond 37°C in past summers, including prolonged heatwaves and record-breaking runs above 35°C.[3][4][10][13] That context matters because a zero-priced outcome is rarely a statement about climate risk; more often it reflects thin order books, stale pricing, or the market not yet incorporating the specific station/location distinction.

For traders using bots, copy-trading or conditional orders, the live inputs to watch are the airport station’s observed high, the timing of local afternoon heating, and any thunderstorms, cloud cover or rain that cap the maximum. Shanghai’s July climatology is variable enough that the day can still swing from low-30s to mid- to upper-30s Celsius, and the settlement source is a single-station historical record rather than a forecast product.[15][16] The useful automation pattern is straightforward: poll the Wunderground history page near the close, compare the reported maximum against the market’s bucket thresholds, and trigger orders only when the observed high becomes effectively locked in.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.