Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is set to record its peak daily temperature for 5 July 2026, a metric that directly determines settlement for this weather contract. Historical climatology for the station shows July as the hottest month, with average highs reaching 37°C and frequent spikes exceeding 35°C during sunny periods[1][5]. The current 0% probability assigned to the “YES” outcome is anomalous given that recent parallel markets for 4 July 2026 show strong consensus for temperatures between 33°C and 34°C, while the broader July 5 market favours 30°C–31°C as the leading outcomes[2][6]. This divergence suggests the market is mispricing the baseline thermal utility of the region rather than reflecting a genuine cold anomaly.

Programmatic traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau’s hourly updates and Wunderground’s real-time feed for the ZSPD station, as these are the definitive resolution sources. Recent reports indicate parts of Pudong have already exceeded 40°C earlier in the summer, reinforcing the likelihood of high readings in early July[7]. A weather front forecast to arrive Sunday night into Monday could act as a catalyst for temperature relief, but traders must verify whether this front impacts the 5 July settlement window before adjusting conditional orders[8]. Automated bots should cross-reference the 72-hour NOAA timeseries for ZSPD to validate trend continuity against the crowd-implied probability[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.