Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Current market data shows a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range. Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs reaching 87°F (30.6°C) and summer peaks regularly exceeding 35°C (95°F) under sunny conditions[5][6]. Early July 2026 data already shows temperatures at 79°F (26.1°C) with 100% humidity and light southerly winds, indicating a cool, wet start to the day[2]. This contrasts sharply with typical peak summer heat, framing the current low probability as a reaction to immediate meteorological conditions rather than seasonal norms.

Traders monitoring this market should watch for shifts in shortwave solar energy, which is gradually increasing in July from 5.1 to 5.6 kWh, and rising growing degree days, which climb rapidly by 912°F over the month[1]. A sudden break in drizzle or drizzle-to-sun transitions could trigger rapid temperature spikes, as seen in recent forecasts where Hongqiao Airport reached 93°F (34°C) with drizzle easing[3]. Programmatically, this market is best approached by automating Wunderground API calls to track hourly maxima and cross-referencing with real-time satellite cloud cover data. Conditional orders should be triggered if solar irradiance exceeds 5.5 kWh or if humidity drops below 80%, both of which correlate with higher peak temperatures. No official weather announcements are scheduled, but dependencies include regional monsoon patterns and urban heat feedback loops, which remain active catalysts for temperature volatility.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.