Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 7 July 2026, specifically the highest Celsius reading for that day. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the highest range bracket, yet historical data frames this as an outlier view. July is consistently Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 34°C and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C during sunny spells[4][5]. Recent forecasts for 7 July indicate a maximum of 33°C with a mix of sun and clouds, while the preceding day reached 34°C[1][7]. Such temperatures are well within the typical summer range, where highs regularly exceed 30°C and often breach 35°C in clear weather[5][9]. A 0% probability implies a belief in unusually cool conditions, which contradicts the established climatic pattern for mid-July in Shanghai.

A programmatic trader approaching this market would monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, and cross-reference with live data from the National Weather Service for Pudong Airport[3]. Key catalysts include shifts in cloud cover, humidity levels, and wind direction, as these directly influence peak temperatures. Current conditions show 84% humidity and east-southeasterly winds at 6 mph, which may moderate the heat but rarely suppress it below 30°C in July[2]. Traders should also track any official heatwave announcements from Chinese meteorological authorities, as these often precede temperature spikes above 35°C. Recent reports confirm Shanghai’s July weather is characterised by intense heat, rain, and high humidity, with daytime temperatures typically hovering above 30°C and often exceeding 35°C[9]. A bot would execute conditional orders based on Wunderground’s hourly updates, adjusting positions as the day progresses toward the 12:00 UTC settlement window. The 0% probability appears misaligned with the robust historical and forecasted data, suggesting a potential inefficiency for algorithmic exploitation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.