Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. June marks the transition into Shanghai's early summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring traders to monitor final readings before the cutoff.

Historical June temperature patterns in Shanghai show considerable year-to-year variance. Over the past decade, 1 June highs have ranged from 24°C to 34°C, with the median around 29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Traders building algorithmic models should cross-reference Wunderground's historical daily records against China Meteorological Administration datasets to validate consistency; API access to historical station data enables backtesting against prior June anomalies and establishing baseline volatility expectations.

Catalysts affecting the outcome include late-May weather pattern forecasts released by the China Meteorological Administration and regional atmospheric pressure systems. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence East Asian summer onset timing and intensity. Traders employing conditional orders or bot-based monitoring should set alerts for meteorological advisories issued 7–10 days before 1 June, as these typically signal whether subtropical high-pressure systems will dominate or monsoon troughs will suppress temperatures. Real-time Wunderground API queries on 1 June itself allow programmatic settlement verification within hours of the resolution window closing.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.