Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 13 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and binned into a range bracket. The settlement mechanism pulls historical data directly from Weather Underground, requiring traders to verify the specific station identifier (ZSPD) and confirm the platform's temperature unit setting before placing positions. A 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a particular range or insufficient liquidity across all brackets.

Historical June temperatures at Shanghai Pudong typically peak between 28–32°C, with occasional excursions toward 34°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat event saw Shanghai reach 37.0°C in mid-June, whilst more recent Junes (2019–2023) clustered around 30–31°C as daily highs. These precedents establish the statistical anchor: most outcomes fall within a narrow band, making tail-range brackets mathematically unlikely but occasionally material. Traders automating this market should weight climatological normals against the specific year's early-season patterns.

Programmatically, the key dependency is Weather Underground's data availability and lag time through the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 June. China's meteorological reporting typically publishes daily maxima by late afternoon local time, but API delays or station maintenance can defer resolution. Conditional order logic should account for this lag; traders relying on automated triggers should test the ZSPD endpoint's historical reliability and confirm whether Weather Underground's Celsius conversion matches official China Meteorological Administration records, which occasionally diverge by 0.1–0.3°C due to rounding protocols.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.