Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **highest daytime temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport** on 22 June, measured in Celsius and then mapped into the market’s settlement band from the Wunderground daily history page. Early-June climatology at the airport normally puts highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, with WeatherSpark showing average June daily highs rising from about 77°F to 83°F (roughly 25°C to 28°C) through the month, so the market is effectively testing whether the day lands in a typical warm-season bin or breaks higher on a spike. [1]

For read-through on the current **0% YES** quote, the useful comparison is not the whole month but the local distribution around late June: the same climatology suggests a fairly narrow central tendency, while forecast vendors for Shanghai in June often show highs clustered in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius rather than extreme heat. That means a bot or spreadsheet trader would usually model this as a range-selection problem, weighting the most likely adjacent bins and updating only when observed max-temperature trajectories and intraday forecast revisions shift materially. [1][6][8][9]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather evolution, especially cloud cover, rain timing, and humidity, because those determine whether the airport reaches the midday or afternoon peak before marine influence and convective showers cap the high. A programmatic approach would watch hourly forecast feeds, compare the airport-specific observation stream against the Wunderground settlement source, and trigger conditional orders when the live forecast drifts across a bin boundary; with a 12:00 UTC settlement window end, late-morning Shanghai conditions are the key input, not evening cooling. [4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.