Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daily temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for Shanghai in June shows daily highs typically increasing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely falling below 69°F or exceeding 95°F, with sunny days often pushing highs between 30°C and 35°C [1][3]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for "YES" is currently 0%, this likely reflects a misunderstanding of the market’s resolution logic or a misalignment with the frontrunner outcome of 27°C, which the market assigns a 64% probability to [2]. Programmatic traders should note that similar conditional markets on preceding days, such as the 26 June event, resolved near 27°C, reinforcing that temperatures in this range are statistically probable rather than anomalous [8].

Traders approaching this market programmatically must monitor real-time weather dependencies, including cloud cover, humidity spikes, and potential flight delays caused by bad weather on 27 June, which JAL has flagged for Shanghai airports [6]. While no specific heatwave announcements are imminent, the seasonal shift into Shanghai’s hot, humid rainy season means sudden solar energy fluctuations could alter peak temperatures; average shortwave solar energy is gradually decreasing in June, falling from 6.0 kWh to 5.1 kWh [1]. A bot script should ingest Wunderground’s hourly data stream for ZSPD, cross-referencing dew point and relative humidity trends from the National Weather Service to predict the daily maximum [4]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June, so conditional orders must execute before this deadline to capture the 27°C outcome, which remains the market’s strongest signal [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.