Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 29 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data for this location shows daily highs in June typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (roughly 25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will not breach a specific high threshold, likely aligned with the upper end of this historical range where temperatures exceed 30°C [5]. Given that summer highs in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C and can reach 35°C during sunny spells, the 0% probability is an aggressive stance that contradicts the typical seasonal volatility observed in this region [5].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the immediate weather schedule for the Pudong area, specifically the forecast for light rain and thunderstorms expected on 29 June, which typically suppress peak temperatures [2]. The primary catalyst to watch is the presence of cloud cover and precipitation, as the forecast indicates a 25% risk of thunderstorms and light rain, conditions that would keep temperatures near 24°C to 29°C rather than allowing them to spike [6]. Traders should also track the real-time wind speed, which averages 11.3 mph in June and remains constant, as strong winds can further inhibit heat accumulation [1]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the highest temperature for all times on the day, meaning any brief, unforecasted heat spike before the rain arrives could alter the outcome, though the prevailing wet conditions make a high-temperature breach unlikely [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.