Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded tomorrow at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, where the crowd assigns a 33% chance to a specific range. Historically, June highs at this station climb steadily from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F, with the hot season formally beginning mid-June [1]. Summer conditions regularly breach 30°C, often reaching 35°C during intense sunshine, meaning the current probability reflects a market weighing whether tomorrow will hit the upper end of the typical 80–85°F band [4][7].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the 25% thunderstorm risk forecast for Monday and the expected rain on Tuesday, as precipitation acts as a primary cooling catalyst that suppresses peak temperatures [6]. The algorithm should also track real-time wind speeds, which remain constant near 11.3 mph, and solar energy inputs that are gradually decreasing through the month [1]. Since resolution relies on Wunderground data for the highest temperature at any time on 30 June, a bot must ingest hourly updates to capture the precise peak before the settlement window closes [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.