Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 9 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data via Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders have until the morning of 9 June to position before the day's peak temperature is locked in. This is a straightforward instrumental market: the outcome depends entirely on meteorological conditions and sensor readings at a single, fixed monitoring station.

June sits within Shanghai's early summer period, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. Historical data from the past five years shows considerable year-to-year variation; 9 June 2024 recorded 31°C whilst 9 June 2023 reached 29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extremely high confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Traders building automated resolution checks should note that Wunderground's historical records occasionally lag by 24–48 hours, requiring contingency logic for delayed data availability.

The primary catalyst is the East Asian monsoon pattern forecast for early June 2026. China's Meteorological Administration typically issues 10-day outlooks by late May; these forecasts drive whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate the region or whether cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime maxima. Traders implementing conditional orders should monitor these forecasts from 25 May onwards, as they represent the most reliable signal for temperature clustering. Local air quality and urban heat island effects at the airport station itself remain secondary variables but can shift readings by 1–2°C relative to surrounding areas.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.