Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, requiring traders to monitor the final reading before the cutoff. This is a straightforward instrumental market: the highest temperature recorded across all times on that calendar day determines which range resolves YES.

Historical May temperatures in Shanghai cluster between 24–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during early summer heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity across all buckets. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year May archive for Shanghai shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C on any single May day are rare but not unprecedented; the distribution skews toward 26–30°C as modal outcomes. Traders automating range selection should calibrate against both climatological norms and anomalous years—2020 and 2023 saw elevated May temperatures across eastern China.

Programmatic approaches benefit from integrating China Meteorological Administration forecasts alongside Wunderground's historical bias. The Asia-Pacific monsoon transition in late May introduces volatility; tropical systems or ridge positioning can shift daily maxima by 5–8°C within a week. No scheduled announcements directly trigger this market, but traders monitoring seasonal climate outlooks from mid-May onwards can adjust positions as forecast confidence improves. The Wunderground API allows conditional order logic tied to forecast updates, enabling systematic rebalancing as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.