Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 28 May 2026 will determine which temperature bracket captures the day's peak reading at Pudong International Airport. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data logged at this station, accessible via Wunderground's archive interface. For automated traders, this presents a straightforward data-retrieval problem: the resolution source publishes daily highs in both Celsius and Fahrenheit, with a single authoritative figure emerging after the settlement window closes at midday UTC on the resolution date.

Late May in Shanghai typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, when daily highs range between 28–32°C depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover. Historical records from 2015–2024 show considerable year-to-year variance; the 28th specifically has seen highs fluctuate from 26°C in cooler years to 34°C during heat-driven events. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable May dates at this station provide calibration points: reviewing Wunderground's historical daily logs for Shanghai reveals that late-month temperatures rarely exceed 35°C, though early heat waves can push toward this threshold.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather pattern forecasts released by China's meteorological authority in early May, which typically project temperature ranges for the coming weeks. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during May can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems over central China drive heat northward into the Yangtze River Delta. Real-time forecast updates from major weather services become actionable only in the final week before settlement, making early-month positioning dependent on climatological priors rather than specific synoptic signals.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.