Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport is currently overcast with a temperature of 84°F (29°C) and 83% humidity, while forecasts indicate a 90% chance of local thunderstorms peaking at 88°F (31°C) today. This wet, cloudy profile directly explains the market’s 0% probability for higher temperature ranges, as precipitation and cloud cover suppress maximum heat accumulation at the resolution station.

Historical July data for Shenzhen typically sees highs between 32°C and 34°C under clear skies, but the current 98% crowd-implied probability for 31°C aligns with the active storm system forecast by Meteoblue [2][3]. Programmatic traders should treat the 0% YES probability as a signal that the weather model has already priced in the cooling effect of the incoming rain, making higher ranges statistically improbable unless the storm system collapses unexpectedly before noon UTC.

Traders monitoring this market must watch real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily maximum, as the settlement depends strictly on the highest recorded temperature at ZGSZ [2]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the 90% precipitation forecast; if radar shows the thunderstorms dissipating before midday, the probability for 32°C or higher could spike, though current models suggest the overcast conditions will hold through the settlement window [1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.