Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport reading for 31 July is usually a hot, humid midsummer print, and the market settles on the *day’s maximum* at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station rather than a citywide average. Long-run climate references put Shenzhen’s July mean high around 31–32°C, with late-July daily highs often clustering in the low-30s, so a mid-30s outcome is more normal than an extreme one.[1][17][20]

For reading the current 0% YES price in a trading stack, the useful comparison is not whether it will be warm, but whether the *station high* can print into the next band up. Historical July data show Shenzhen’s typical highs near 32–34°C, while the record highs in comparable datasets are materially higher, which leaves room for upside if clouds break early and sea-breeze moderation is weak.[2][11][14] In programmatic terms, this is a straightforward threshold event: the bot should map hourly forecast highs against the market’s settlement bands and only reprice aggressively if the modelled peak shifts above the nearest strike.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any single-day temperature market: the latest forecast cycle, convective cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any shift in the afternoon sea breeze. At 09:05 UTC on 31 July, the relevant watchlist is the midday-to-afternoon evolution at the airport station, because the settlement source is the station’s highest observed temperature on that calendar day, not the headline daily mean.[16] For an automated workflow, that means polling the official history page or a weather API feed, comparing updated hourly maxima against the market bands, and using conditional orders around forecast revisions rather than waiting for the final observed print.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.