Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's daily maximum temperature on 1 June 2026 will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. June marks the transition into Shenzhen's summer monsoon season, when daytime highs typically range between 28–34°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement mechanism relies on a single automated data point—the highest temperature logged across all 24-hour observations at that specific station—making this market sensitive to both seasonal patterns and localised microclimatic conditions around the airport's measurement equipment.

Historical June temperatures at Bao'an show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, daily maxima on 1 June ranged from 26°C to 33°C, with most years clustering around 29–31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests market participants are either uncertain about available forecast data or treating this as a calibration test rather than a genuine prediction task. For programmatic traders, the key dependency is Weather Underground's historical database accuracy; the platform's data feeds are accessible via API, allowing conditional orders to trigger once official readings become available post-settlement window closure on 2 June at 12:00 UTC.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks for Guangdong Province. Recent subtropical high-pressure systems have influenced South China's early-summer temperatures, though seasonal models remain the primary driver for June 1st conditions. The market's resolution hinges entirely on instrumental measurement rather than forecast consensus, creating opportunities for traders with direct access to airport station data feeds.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.