Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Market context

Shenzhen's June weather will determine whether the daily high at Bao'an International Airport exceeds various temperature thresholds on 11 June 2026. The resolution hinges on a single data point—the maximum temperature recorded across all hours that day at the airport's official weather station, measured in Celsius and sourced from Wunderground's historical database.

June represents the onset of Shenzhen's summer monsoon season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 28–34°C during this period. Looking at comparable years, 11 June temperatures have clustered in the 30–32°C range, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration exercise; early-season weather models remain volatile at this distance, making programmatic approaches reliant on ensemble forecasts rather than deterministic outputs.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration seasonal outlooks and any anomalies in the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system, which drives Shenzhen's summer heat intensity. Recent patterns from 2024–2025 show June peaks have remained within historical norms, though the South China Sea's sea-surface temperature anomalies in May will signal whether above-average heat is likely. For systematic traders, integrating Wunderground's historical volatility metrics alongside GFS and ECMWF ensemble means provides a quantifiable baseline for position sizing before the settlement window closes on 12 June.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.