Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen will experience its early-summer climate on 9 June 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport determining the settlement outcome. June sits within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon period, when daily highs typically range between 28–34°C, though conditions vary based on cloud cover and wind patterns from the South China Sea.

Historical temperature data from Shenzhen's airport station shows June extremes clustering around 32–35°C on clear days, with occasional peaks above 36°C during high-pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting forecast data or treating this as a calibration event. For programmatic approaches, integrating Wunderground's historical API alongside China Meteorological Administration datasets provides redundancy; the settlement source explicitly references Wunderground's daily history tool, so traders should verify the station identifier (ZGSZ) and confirm timezone handling—Shenzhen operates on China Standard Time (UTC+8), and the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, which is 20:00 local time, capturing the full diurnal cycle.

Conditional order logic should account for forecast updates from the China Meteorological Administration and regional weather services, typically issued 7–10 days ahead. Tropical systems or upper-level troughs could suppress temperatures below seasonal norms, whilst high-pressure ridges favour above-average readings. The market's current state reflects genuine forecast uncertainty rather than mispricing; traders should monitor 72-hour forecasts from 6 June onwards for actionable signal.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 9? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.