Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station and resolved against Wunderground's historical database. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full 24-hour temperature cycle for that calendar date must be captured before resolution. For automated traders, the key technical requirement is parsing Wunderground's daily history pages—the site structure uses consistent URL patterns (wunderground.com/history/daily/) but requires handling both metric and imperial unit toggles via the settings gear icon, which affects API response formatting if you're building conditional order logic around specific thresholds.

Shenzhen's subtropical climate produces highly predictable May temperatures. Historical data from the past decade shows maximum temperatures on 26 May clustering between 28–32°C, with rare excursions above 33°C occurring only during anomalous heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all resolution brackets. Comparable late-May markets in southern China typically see tighter probability distributions once meteorological forecasts solidify 7–10 days ahead.

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration's 10-day outlook (updated daily at cma.gov.cn) and Wunderground's own forecast model, which incorporates regional pressure systems and monsoon activity. Late May sits at the cusp of pre-summer heating; any tropical system tracking toward the Pearl River Delta would materially shift the distribution. The market's resolution dependency on a single airport station means localised weather variation is irrelevant—only Bao'an's recorded maximum counts.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.