Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s daytime high on 27 July will be measured at Changi Airport, with the market settling on the day’s single highest reading in degrees Celsius from the Wunderground history page. In practical terms, a programmatic trader would treat this as a one-observation event tied to a fixed station and cutoff window, so the key task is to monitor the final daily maximum rather than intraday noise.

The 0% crowd-implied YES on the exact event title is not the same as a view that the temperature will be low; it usually reflects how narrow prediction-market bins can make exact outcomes look unattractive when the expected range is spread across several adjacent temperatures. Singapore’s July climate is typically warm and stable, with daytime highs usually no higher than 34°C, which helps explain why nearby outcomes such as 30°C and 31°C often carry most of the probability mass rather than a single dominant number.[2][1]

For traders using bots or conditional orders, the important dependencies are the published station history, the local weather pattern on the day, and any short-term rain or cloud cover that could cap the maximum. The Singapore weather service has previously warned that hotter conditions can occur from July in El Niño phases, so if seasonal signals are active, they can matter more than the headline monthly average.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Singapore on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.